Why Africa is on the brink of solar power revolution

The continent’s tremendous potential could soon be unlocked by a widespread shift to renewable energy

In remote regions of Kenya, hunger can strike with devastating suddenness.
Droughts and flooding, pests and disease are all ever-present threats to rural communities here and elsewhere in Africa.
Making perishable harvests last is the key to surviving periods of hardship, but without access to electricity it can be extremely difficult.
An unassuming white shipping container adorned with solar panels may be the solution. These solar-powered mobile cold-stores are popping up across Africa, from Kenya to Ghana and Nigeria, allowing farmers to protect their harvests from the elements and stave off hunger.
They are part of a solar power revolution that is sweeping the continent and raising hopes that its tremendous potential will soon be unlocked.
With access to electricity soaring and the cost of solar panels falling rapidly, experts say the continent is on the brink of an energy revolution similar to the one that transformed the Gulf States in the 1970s.
Despite possessing 60 per cent of the world’s best solar resources, the “Sun Continent” accounts for only one per cent of global solar power generation capacity, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
More than 500 million people living in Africa currently have no access to electricity.
But this could be about to change.
Last year, a record number of solar panels were installed in Africa, and in April the World Bank and African Development Bank launched an initiative to expand electricity access to 300 million more people by 2030.
It’s part of a global shift towards solar power.
China has been the world’s largest installer of capacity for several years, while tax incentives have pushed the states of California, Texas, and Florida to lead in solar infrastructure. The EU has set aggressive renewable energy targets, which have spurred investments.
By the mid 2030s, solar energy is expected to become the largest source of electrical power, and by the 2040s, it may become the largest source of all energy. Solar capacity is doubling roughly every three years, or around tenfold each decade.
Until now, Africa’s solar power potential has been largely untapped, and experts believe accessing it will transform the continent.
“In Africa, the electricity supply is very poor. So if solar can fix that, that’s enormously helpful. It could be the basis for industrialisation and manufacturing because that’s what Africa really needs,” Robin Mills, a Non-Resident Fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy, told the Telegraph.
Mr Mills said that, in the same way that oil wealth turned Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates into economic powerhouses, abundant solar resources in Africa have the potential to catalyse growth.
“These countries were some of the poorest in the world. There was no running water, no electricity, no paved roads,” said Mr Mills.
In contrast to most countries that rely on collecting taxes for revenue, Gulf rulers took oil rents and distributed the proceeds, swiftly improving standards of living, healthcare, and education for their citizens.
“A big part of the development was putting money back into the country,” explained Mr Mills. “The wealth went into the local economies, and to build roads and schools, hospitals and airports.”
Remarkable technological advancements have increased the efficiency – and slashed the cost – of solar power, making it a much more viable option in Africa.
Over the past four decades, the price of solar panels has plummeted by a staggering 99 per cent, a development heralded as a triumph for renewable energy.
Breakthroughs in photovoltaic cell technology have also been a game-changer, boosting conversion efficiency so that more power is harvested from sunlight than ever before.
The cost of polysilicon, the high-purity silicon used in solar panels, has been steadily decreasing due to soaring demand. China, a major polysilicon producer, has incentivised production with subsidies and tax breaks, making it more affordable to produce and purchase. Advances in manufacturing have led to the production of thinner silicon wafers – the part of a solar panel which converts photons from sunlight into direct current electricity – reducing waste.
Scaling up production facilities has also played a significant role in cost reduction.
Government policies have further expanded global markets, with initiatives like feed-in tariffs, tax incentives, and renewable energy mandates driving worldwide adoption of solar power. At the same time, a streamlined global supply chain for solar components has reduced expenses related to transportation and logistics.
“In much of Sub-Saharan Africa, the hope is that we will just completely skip that fossil fuel element and go straight to renewable energy, as long as it’s affordable,” said Tracy Kimathi, a Nairobi based renewable energy entrepreneur whose projects have included solar-powered cold stores for rural communities.
Right now, South Africa and Egypt have the biggest solar capacity, followed by Algeria, but the possibilities for production stretch further afield – much of it fuelled by private investment.
Across the globe, most solar panel installations are undertaken by utilities. However, in Africa, 65 per cent of new capacity in the past two years has been generated through direct contracts between large firms and developers.
In Nigeria, the phasing out of petrol subsidies last year accelerated the transition to cleaner energy sources. Shell, the British oil giant which has had a major presence in Nigeria since 1937, recently acquired Daystar Power, a startup that has equipped numerous large domestic businesses with solar power systems.
In Kenya, distributed renewable energy (DRE) firms employ over six times more people than the country’s largest utility company. Similarly, in Nigeria, these firms have generated nearly as many jobs as the entire oil and gas industry combined.
The cost of solar panels in South Africa fell by 15 per cent between 2019 and 2023, having already declined by almost 90 per cent in the 2010s. In the last two years, solar capacity in the country has almost tripled.
Industry estimates indicate that over 400 million Africans now receive electricity from solar home systems. From 2016 to 2020, more than ten times as many mini-grids, predominantly solar-powered, were established compared to the previous five years.
“It’s a really good thing to do from a social perspective, because it’s going to drive development make those economies more attractive for their inhabitants, potentially reduce kind of outward migration pressures, contribute to low carbon development,” Dr Ajay Gambhir, a Senior Research Fellow at the Imperial College London Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, said.
Although introducing solar power into Africa has a wealth of benefits, there are roadblocks to clear before its full potential can be realised.
“There’s a lot of risk in solar projects,” said Dr Gambhir. “There are a lot of people that want to develop solar in Africa, but there’s still a lot of poverty. The playing field needs to be levelled, and it’s very hard to do that in countries which are still very debt-laden and have a lot of social and economic problems.”
The World Bank believes that the most cost-effective way to get halfway to its 300 million target is by extending existing grids. But many parts of Africa lack reliable and extensive electricity grids, making it difficult to integrate solar power into the existing infrastructure.
South Africa averages at around 2,500 hours of sun each year, compared to the UK’s 1,500, but investments are falling short due to the country’s ailing infrastructure. Rolling blackouts, commonly referred to as “load-shedding,” are a frequent occurrence.
South Africa’s state power utility Eskom, Africa’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, has proposed a $10 billion (£7.4 billion) plan to shut down the vast majority of its coal-fired power stations by 2050. Ekson has claimed that rolling out widespread solar infrastructure could generate over 300,000 jobs in the country.
Experts have said serious upgrades to the country’s electricity grid are needed first, and that the cost of this could exceed $35 billion over the next 15 years.
Established reliance on conventional energy sources, such as diesel generators, can make the transition to solar power less attractive, while limited government commitments are also a hindrance.
Political instability and conflicts in certain regions can also disrupt solar power projects and deter long-term investment. The Sahel – one of the regions with the highest amount of sunlight – has been touted as an area where renewable energy investments could be most effective.
The Desert-to-Power initiative, which first launched in 2018, aims to deploy 10 gigawatts of solar power across 11 countries by 2030, giving approximately 250 million people access to electricity through both on-grid and off-grid solutions. The initial phase of the program focuses on Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, and Senegal.
It has been lauded as one of the world’s most ambitious energy projects, but the semi-arid strip beneath the Sahara has become a volatile coup belt in recent years. French troops have been expelled from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, all of which have experienced recent military coups.
The Sahel region accounted for almost half of all global deaths from terrorist attacks in 2023, according to the Global Terrorism Index, with Burkina Faso alone reporting 1,900.
“I think Desert to power is an interesting initiative, but obviously it’s quite challenging in terms of political cooperation, potential dependence of Europe on North Africa, and other geopolitical factors that seem difficult to reconcile with the increasingly multipolar world we’re in right now,” said Dr Gambhir.
The war torn countries of the Sahel must prioritise more immediate needs – like healthcare and education – and don’t have skilled technicians and engineers to install, maintain, and repair solar systems.
“The potential, everyone knows about it, but actually building things has been, has been difficult,” said Mr Mills. “Turning potential into reality has always been a challenge.”
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